In brief
The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad opens possibilities for Gulf states but raises risks due to the prominent rebel factions.
As the Syrian Civil War enters a new phase following the abrupt fall of long-time dictator Bashar al-Assad, Gulf powerhouse nations, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), find themselves reassessing their strategies in the region. Traditionally, Syria has been closely aligned with Iran; however, Assad's ousting presents a unique opportunity for these Gulf states to re-establish ties with the new leadership in Damascus. Despite this potential, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are approaching the new government with caution. The main rebel faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has taken control of much of the country, has a history intertwined with Islamist ideologies and was once linked to the extremist organization Al-Qaeda. This situation significantly complicates the Gulf nations’ chances of support for Syria, as they have a long-standing stance against the rise of political Islam, which includes opposition to groups like Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, and the Muslim Brotherhood.In the face of this volatility, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have emphasized that any political engagement with Syria's new leaders hinges on their ability to prove they represent a comprehensive and inclusive governance approach. Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic advisor to the Emirati president, has highlighted the need for reassurance regarding the nature and past affiliations of the factions currently in power, indicating a wariness about establishing ties before necessary assurances are provided. As the political landscape continues to evolve, the focus remains on how Saudi Arabia and the UAE will manage their ambitions while addressing the risk of bolstering factions that do not align with their broader geopolitical objectives.
